We’ve talked about the Yankees hitters often here at MBP, and frankly, as long as Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Giancarlo Stanton are all simultaneously vaporizing baseballs, there isn’t too much to say. That team is going to score a lot of runs and be a heck of a lot of fun to watch.
The starting pitching, however, has been a more complex situation. As the gang over at Simpleton Summer Camp (the YES Network) keeps reminding us, the Yankees staff leads MLB in ERA. Yet, as I’ve been reminding you, it’s not nearly that simple, in part because ERA is a dumb stat, but there are other variables too.
Overall, the starting pitchers rank 16th in xFIP and 10th in K-BB% – certainly not “bad” but not what we should be calling “good” either. Throw in the fact that they’ve allowed the 10th highest average exit velocity but have the 10th lowest BABIP and they may (“may”) be the beneficiaries of good luck. Also, as I’ve mentioned before, Yankees fielders have been much better than they’ve been given credit for and have been a bigger factor in the team’s run prevention than most folks realize.
On an individual level, Clarke Schmidt is not receiving enough credit – he’s been the best starting pitcher on the Yankees staff in ’24. (Yes, better than Luis Gil.) Conversely, we need to worry about Carlos Rodon, who has been doing a good impersonation of a batting practice pitcher for a long time now.
Out of 83 MLB starting pitchers with enough innings to qualify, Schmidt ranks 21st in K-BB% and 25th in xFIP, leading the Yankees in both categories. And with exit velocity allowed and BABIP both in the mid ranges, he hasn’t been affected by randomness too much.
Rodon? Out of those 83 MLB pitchers, he ranks 77th in xFIP, 46th in K-BB% and (avert your eyes) has allowed the 2nd highest average exit velocity and 13th highest barrel rate. The man gives up as much hard contact as just about any regular starter in baseball and has been doing so since becoming a Yankee. Unless there’s a significant turnaround from the above, the somewhat positive results he’s been getting will absolutely turn around.
Schmidt will be on the bump today in Sahn Dee-ah-go, while Joe Musgrove will have the misfortune of trying to get Yankees hitters out. First pitch, 4:10 PM, eastern time, catch it on YES.
Recommended reading:
As I mentioned on social media this week, “Blood Sport: A-Rod and the Quest to End Baseball’s Steroid Era” by Gus Garcia-Roberts came out in 2015, and I’m still shocked more Yankees fans haven’t read it – it’s absolutely one of the most underrated baseball books I’ve ever read. Gus is a true crime writer and author of “Jimmy the King” which is also great, if that’s your bag. (Insert joke about how that prepared him to write about the A-Rod and Manfred situation.)
I also just grabbed “The Yankee Way: The Untold Story of the Brian Cashman Era” by Andy Martino, (who also wrote “Chetaed: The Inside Story of the Astros Scandal”.) I’ll circle back to the Cashman book, but if you’ve read it, give me your two cents.
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