11 months ago today, the Yankees sent starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery to the “show me” state in exchange for center fielder Harrison Bader. Since Monty will be on the bump today for the Redbirds, let’s take a closer look at how the trade has worked out for the Yankees.
Spoiler alert: Not good. In fact, even worse than you probably think.
Harrison Bader has been exactly as advertised for the Yankees. A much better than average defensive center fielder, and although he should never be relied on for offense, he certainly can put a charge into something left middle/middle in the zone. Yet we need to acknowledge the rather large elephant in the corner that told us that Bader was also injury prone, and he’s certainly lived up to that hype as well.
Having come to the Yankees with his foot in a walking boot, then dealing with extended oblique and hamstring issues in 2023, Bader has only played in 50 games as a Yankee in 11 months. (For some perspective, Giancarlo Stanton has played in 64 over that same time span.)
In totality, since becoming a Yankee, Bader has played in 50 games with 182 PA and has posted a 88 wRC+ and 0.9 fWAR. For those of you with an aversion to the advanced stats, I can assure you that’s not good.
As far as what the Yankees gave up…you may want to avert your eyes.
Jordan Montgomery has been both very good and very reliable for the Cardinals. And although the Yankees pitching and run prevention overall has been very good, the number of starting pitchers they’ve had since last August that have been both good and reliable is exactly one.
As a Cardinal, Monty ranks 14th among MLB pitchers in fWAR (higher than Gerrit Cole), 14th in xFIP and 11th in HR per nine innings. Not only has he continued his proclivity for throwing strikes (85th percentile in BB%), but he’s improved his ability to avoid hard contact, ranking in the 70th percentile in both average exit velocity and hard hit %.
I’m not a professional pitching coach, but I’m pretty sure if you don’t issue free passes and keep the ball in the park, you’re going to do very well – as Montgomery has.
And unlike Bader and most of the Yankees staff, Montgomery has been a rock for St. Louis over the past 11 months. Today will be his 28th start as a Cardinal – only six pitchers have made more over the same time span.
Again, one can still justify the trade by arguing the Yankees pitching overall has been very good without Montgomery, they needed a center fielder, and 11 months isn’t long enough to fairly evaluate a trade. All of those things are true of course…
But…
It’s hard to say what the ripple effect of having someone like Montgomery on the staff would be given the lack of reliability in regards to both production and health among the Yanks’ staff over the past 11 months. It’s safe to say the Yankees’ run prevention would be even better with Monty than it’s been without it.
Furthermore, the Yankees haven’t had that centerfielder for almost exactly two-thirds of their games since last August 2nd, and when they did have him, he’s been far from bad but hasn’t been particularly good either. Only a half win more than Aaron Hicks has been over the same time frame to be exact, and likely not better than Estevan Florial would have been had he been given a run.
Two things can be true: We can like Harrison Bader and still acknowledge this trade has been an ugly one thus far.
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