As opposed to choosing a side between optimism and pessimism, I try to be a realist. From that vantage point it’s hard to expect much from the Yankees this weekend in south Florida and by extension the rest of the season. (He typed, while looking at the remaining optimists out there…) Despite having a good season (very good by their standards) the Marlins are also a flawed team, and yet, primarily due to pitching matchups should win the series with the Yankees this weekend.
Let’s take a closer look.
Tonight’s starter for Miami Jesús Luzardo is 25 years old, has more fWAR than any Yankee pitcher besides Gerrit Cole and has a better xFIP than every Yankee starter including Cole. If you’re curious, Miami acquired Luzardo in a trade for an about to be 35-year-old outfielder who currently has a negative WAR. Luzardo will be opposed by Yankees prospect Randy Vásquez who is only one year younger than Luzardo.
Tomorrow’s starter for the fish, Sandy Alcantara, is on pace for 3.5 fWAR and has an xFIP that would be second on the Yankees to Cole – this is considered an off year for Alcantara. FYI, the 27-year-old reigning Cy Young award winner was acquired in a trade for a now 32-year-old outfielder who currently has 0.5 fWAR.
Sunday’s starter for the Marlins, Eury Pérez, is 20 years old and has a better K% – BB% than Cole. He isn’t old enough to buy himself a mojito, but he throws four pitches already and one of them averages 98 mph on the gun. He was signed as a teenage international free agent out of the Dominican Republic.
If we want to play devil’s advocate, we certainly can say that Saturday’s starter, Nestor Cortes is no slouch, Cole is one of the best in MLB and he’s on the hill Sunday and the Marlins offense isn’t particularly scary.
That’s fair, but…
The Yankees rank 21st in R/G in 2023 while the Marlins are 26th and Miami has a slightly better team OPS+. Furthermore, unlike the Yankees, the Marlins improved at the trade deadline by adding two players who have histories of hitting the ball over the wall which was the Marlins’ biggest weakness at that point. The Marlins lineup may not be terrifying, but neither is the lineup that the Marlins pitchers will be facing.
And of course, Nestor is very good – but he isn’t Alcantara, and yes Cole has been one of the best in MLB for a long time. Yet the kid he’s facing certainly can be that good on Sunday so anything less than the best version of Cole may be problematic.
Despite my caveat above, if I were looking at a half full glass I’d mention Giancarlo Stanton. In just over one calendar month, Stanton – despite being on the wrong end of luck with a .159 BABIP over his last 112 PA – has elevated his OPS+ to above league average on the 2023 season, which is remarkable all things considered. (11 home runs over the course of a month will tend to help in that regard.) Perhaps Stanton continues to elevate his game in his old stomping grounds, and all Yankee fans have seen what a different team they are when Stanton is doing Stanton things.
Regardless, it’s been a dreary stretch for the Yankees and I know you didn’t ask but if you did I’d say it’s about to get drearier.
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