Notes on Bad Luck, Sean Casey, and Donnie Baseball

My apologies to those of you who have told me that you like my writing style, today I’m just going to throw some numbers and information at you. I’m going this route partially because I’m short on time (and patience) today and partially because I’m not sure the information needs further explanation and analysis.

Let’s get to it. In no particular order:

The Yankees hitters have been extremely unlucky in 2023. How unlucky?

Across MLB, they rank fifth in average exit velocity as a group but dead last in BABIP.

Their expected wOBA, which believes walks are better than strikeouts and hitting the ball hard is better than hitting it weakly (PLEASE don’t tell me you’re going to try to punch a hole in that logic) ranks 9th in MLB – they’ve put together good at bats more consistently than two thirds of the league.

But either remarkably or comically, their actual wOBA ranks 24th.

For some perspective, their expected wOBA – the quality of their at bats – has been better than the Cubs’ and Angels’ batters has been. Yet the Cubs rank fifth in MLB in scoring, while the Angels rank 10th – the Yankees? 23rd in runs per game.

Feel free to laugh or cry at that.

After being hired to be the Yankees hitting coach, Sean Casey yelled (almost literally) about the need to improve batting average and contact. Since he took over, the team’s batting average has dropped while their strikeout rate has risen.

Far more importantly, at the time of Dillon Lawson’s dismissal, the Yankees averaged 4.40 runs per game, which ranked 19th in baseball. Since Casey took over the team has averaged 3.80 runs per game “good” for 28th in baseball.

Some information for those who think Don Mattingly would be a good addition to the on-field decision making in 2024 for the Yankees:

With Mattingly on the coaching staff, the Blue Jays currently rank 16th in runs per game. Last year they ranked fourth in R/G. With Mattingly the Jays batters are posting a 107 OPS+ – last year it was 117.

Also, from the “that’s just funny” department, since having Mattingly – arguably the best defensive first baseman of all time – around, Vlad Jr. has become a worse defensive first baseman, by both OAA and DRAA.

And if you’re thinking that Mattingly’s strategic decision making is better than Aaron Boone’s, I’m going to refer you to Baseball Reference and laugh…I’m not sure in which order.

Did I miss something? Let me know. Leave a comment below and/or yell at me @mybaseballpage1 on Twitter and/or the “My Baseball Page” on Facebook.

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