The Giancarlo Stanton Problem

Now that we’ve all wiped away the tears of joy from ugly crying at the Yankees’ acquisition of Juan Soto, we need to acknowledge the bigger picture: The Yanks’ lineup still has some major question marks smack dab in the middle of it.

Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu and Giancarlo Stanton are all 34 years old or older, are all friends with health problems, and all are expected to produce for the Yankees in the middle of the lineup in 2024. As good as Torres, Judge and Soto sound at the top of the lineup (in whatever order), the previous sentence should make you squirm in your chair a little.

Let’s start with Stanton.

In 2023 Stanton was one of a few Yankees who did something to bring the wrath of the Gods of randomness down upon him. Stanton missed 47 games due to injury and sat another 14 due to his bosses not wanting him to get hurt (quite obviously “load management” for Stanton is a failed strategy but we’ll discuss that another day). And although absolutely no one would argue Stanton’s performance in the batter’s box was “good” last season, it was nowhere near as bad as the traditional numbers suggest.

Among 258 qualified MLB hitters, Stanton had the 13^th widest gap between his wOBA and expected wOBA, and despite maintaining elite exit velocity, had a BABIP 97 points below his career average. I don’t know what the opposite of a rabbit’s foot is – but whatever it is Stanton had it in his pocket in ’23.

Two things to note before we move on: expected wOBA believes that walks are good, strikeouts are bad, and hitting hard line drives is better than hitting grounders and pop-ups. I can’t imagine any serious baseball fan not being in lockstep with that measurement. Secondly, Stanton’s .325 wOBA may not sound good, but for perspective, Cody Bellinger (who many Yankee fans and media were fawning over) posted a .327 wOBA in 2023.

All that said, allow me to remove my rose-colored glasses and state the obvious: A part time DH, who never plays the field, is an awful baserunner, and posts an 87 OPS+ on the season is not a player a team that is serious about winning a World Series would keep on their roster.

And it isn’t just a bad luck 2023 we’re talking about here. Stanton has not been good for a long time.

Stanton got off to a hot start in 2022, posting a 161 wRC+, .357 OBP, .568 SLG and 11 long balls by May 21^st. That earned him the nod as the DH for the AL in the ’22 All-Star Game in which he hit another home run and took home the All-Star Game MVP.

Since May 21^st of 2022, over 713 PA, Stanton has posted an OBP/SLG of .271/.414 for a wRC+ of 90. 182 MLB batters had as many PA over that time span and 160 of them were better hitters than Stanton.

There are two ways to look at this:

One: It’s not possible that one of the best power hitters of his generation, and one of the best hitters in MLB at age 32, is completely unable to hit at age 34 – I understand regression but that doesn’t track. And, as noted, his at bats last season weren’t nearly as bad as the numbers suggest.

Two: 713 PA over a season and two-thirds is a big sample size and Stanton has been a below average hitter that entire period. And due to his inability to contribute in the field or on the bases, if he is not absolutely mashing baseballs, he’s useless to your team. (Read: He’s taking up a roster spot for a player who can contribute.)

Here’s what I propose:

Stanton is your everyday DH until Memorial Day.

If on Memorial Day, Stanton is a productive hitter, then you have a good problem. If he continues to be worse than a league average hitter, then you have to release him.

Obviously, that would be hard to do. Despite things not working out well, Stanton had a 38 HR, 100 RBI 2018 season for a 100 win team (when Judge missed a third of the season), was a monster down the stretch in ’21 to get the Yanks into the postseason, has been one of the best postseason Yankee hitters of all time, and has made us gasp countless times over the past six years. Heck, his grand slam over the Draft Kings sign at Fenway to essentially clinch a playoff spot in ’21 still gives me goosebumps. Furthermore, he’s dealt with the wrath of fans, media and taken all the hits with class and professionalism.

Yet again, you can’t have a DH who can’t hit on your roster and be serious about competing for a World Series title. And if we get to the point where it’s been two years of having a DH who can’t hit on your roster, even Stanton’s biggest supporters – I am one of them – would admit releasing him would be the right thing to do.

Did I miss something? Let me know. Leave a comment below or yell at me @mybaseballpage1 on Twitter and/or the “My Baseball Page” on Facebook.

PS: My apologies, my real-life responsibilities have kept me away from here more than I’ve liked recently, but in case you missed it, my last post discussed Roy White – the most underrated Yankee ever – and his new book, which you can check out HERE.