Glass Half Empty

Let’s talk about the 2024 Yankees under the assumption there won’t be any major changes to the roster between now and March 28^th. Should the reigning NL Cy Young award winner (who’s still out there somewhere) land in the Bronx, we’ll revisit this conversation.

Are the Yankees better than they were at the end of 2023?

Absolutely. Juan Soto and Marcus Stroman are worth about nine wins between them, which would have put last year’s abomination into the playoffs. Combine that with the almost comical extent to which matters went wrong for the Yankees last season (injuries, underperformance, and awful luck on batted balls) and you must assume things will even out to an extent, and then we’re looking at not only a playoff team, but a pretty good one. That’s also not counting any moves and additions that can be made this summer.

Many call me a pessimist, which you know is just an optimist with more experience. So, although the above is true – the roster is better, luck was bad last season, and some players did underperform last year and might bounce back – forgive me if I pump the brakes a little bit. Because much – and I mean A LOT – of a potential bounce back hinges on old (by baseball standards) players who have been at odds with good health for a long time.

For those of you who have heard me say this numerous times before, I apologize, but it’s worth repeating: There is only one truism in the field of health and performance: Every musculoskeletal injury increases the likelihood of another musculoskeletal injury.

With that in mind, let’s start with Carlos Rodón. Rodón is on the wrong side of thirty, and in the past seven seasons has made more than 25 starts in a season once. More specifically and importantly, he’s missed time due to arm injuries in seven of his nine MLB seasons. Expecting a big bounce back from him is going against the law of averages, not with it.

I might be Giancarlo Stanton’s biggest fan, but I try to be realistic. He’s 34 years old and hasn’t had a full, injury free season in six years. Making matters worse, is that since a scalding hot six weeks to open the 2022 season, he’s been awful when he’s been on the field.

DJ LeMahieu will be 36 this July and although has managed to stay on the field more than many of his teammates, that’s largely due to playing through a hernia in 2021 that made him a below average player and playing the end of ’22 and the start of ’23 on one foot – again, which didn’t really help. Healthy DJ from April through August of ’22 was the best extended stretch of his career, and he finished strong last season, but the reality is I don’t know which DJ is showing up in ’24 – and neither do you.

Anthony Rizzo will turn 35 this season. And although much of his time missed over the past few years is not related to musculoskeletal issues, he has a history of back pain. More importantly, forgive me if I’m skeptical when the Yankees organization tells me Rizzo is “fine” given the way his health was mismanaged last season. Even if things do fall into place, what are we really expecting from a production standpoint? FanGraphs has him projected at 1.4 WAR – let’s say he exceeds that by 50% – we’re still talking about an average player if things go better than expected.

Is it possible that Rodón stays healthy and returns to the five to six WAR pitcher he was in ’21 and ’22? Is it possible that Stanton ran into bad luck last year and returns to being a scary presence in the middle of the lineup again? Is it possible DJ is 100% healthy and plays 150 games of line drive smoking, plus defending at multiple positions again? Is it possible Rizzo plays 150 games with a 125 wRC+?

Yes, all these things are possible – but they’re all unlikely. It’s even more unlikely that all four will be significant contributors this season, which they would have to be for the Yankees to be serious championship contenders.

Again, I’m not trying to rain on anyone’s parade – this team is better than it was. I’m just not planning on any parades quite yet.

Did I miss something? Let me know. Leave a comment below or yell at me @mybaseballpage1 on Twitter and/or the “My Baseball Page” on Facebook.

PS: Reminder, I’ll be back to talk about Lonnie Wheeler’s “The Bona Fide Legend of Cool Papa Bell” and Game 5 of the 1956 World Series soon.