The Yanks are playing phenomenally and have been a heck of a lot of fun to watch as well – there’s absolutely zero reason not to be optimistic about the rest of 2024.
That said, Joe Girardi talking about bunting and “contact” over the first few games, then Paul O’Neill citing every player’s batting average on every broadcast since have made us all a little dumber. (I’m not even going to get into O’Neill mentioning Alex Verdugo “pulling his pants down around his ankles” on two straight broadcasts – if you missed that discourse, consider yourself fortunate.)
So, let’s look a little deeper at what’s really gone on. Is what we’ve seen thus far the real Yankees? Are they going to crash back to earth soon? Can they (gasp) get even better?
Maybe a little of all the above.
On a team level, despite what many folks seem to believe, the Yankees’ offense has not really been overly lucky this season. Their BABIP, HR/BB ratio, wOBA to xwOBA ratio, and average exit velocity are all in the middle of the pack league wide. That’s without mentioning their league leading 16 GIDP, which “might” indicate bad luck, if anything.
On a micro level, it’s no secret that Anthony Volpe and Oswaldo Cabrera have both had things go their way in 2024. That’s not a criticism as they’ve both played very well, but Volpe’s .448 BABIP (I’m sorry what…?!?) and Cabrera’s .391 BABIP (second to Volpe on the Yanks) are going to come down precipitously.
On the flip side, Aaron Judge, Alex Verdugo, and Austin Wells have performed much better in the batters’ box than many folks have realized, myself included.
In fact, Wells’ xwOBA and xSLG are both 97th percentile in MLB and the best on the Yanks. A comically low .158 BABIP has given many the impression that he isn’t hitting well – he is, and the results should follow soon. Additionally, Wells currently ranks in the 80th percentile among catchers in framing, so he’s been a valuable player thus far even without the traditional counting production.
Meanwhile, Verdugo’s .178 BABIP is in the 8th percentile in MLB and he’s one of four Yankees who have more walks than strikeouts on the season (Soto, Wells, and Judge being the others). I wouldn’t expect a massive breakout from Verdugo, but there have been positive signs despite O’Neill’s observations of his low batting average and pants.
On a scary note…
Aaron Judge has a .207 BABIP (13th percentile) and still has posted a 141 wRC+. He’s drawing a ton of walks (2nd highest BB% in MLB), and still smoking the ball (92.6 average exit velocity). When the gods of randomness look for other hitters to pick on, Judge is going to make pitchers think that maybe throwing strikes to Soto is the lesser of two evils.
Game 13 of 162 is tonight, 7:05 pm, in the Bronx, with Marcus Stroman on the hill. It’ll be on Amazon Prime Video for the locals and MLB.tv if you’re out of town.
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