Is Aaron Judge (gasp) Undervalued?

After his first four seasons in MLB, Aaron Judge won a Rookie of the Year award, a Silver Slugger award, appeared in two All-Star games, and many fans (even non-Yankee fans) believe he has a 2017 MVP award that currently resides on the Altuve family mantel. He did that while playing 99.7% of his career games to that point as a right fielder or designated hitter. Given his body type looks more like an NFL edge rusher than a baseball player, it was a safe assumption that right field and DH would be his positions until his mid to late 30’s when he may be switched to first base.

Yet here we are less than four years later, and the 32-year-old destroyer of baseballs is not only the best centerfielder in MLB by light years, but he’s also become that in part by being a better than average defensive center fielder*.

(*As of this writing, among fWAR leaders at center field, the gap between number 13 and number two is closer than the gap between number two and Judge. And according to both Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs, he ranks as a slightly better than average defender.)

Judge’s ability to play center field on a better than average level, and on an everyday basis has had a far bigger impact on the Yankees won/loss record over the past few seasons than people give him credit for. The various versions of WAR can give the player credit for positional difficulty, but it can’t measure the effect that Judge has had on the team, by way of making his bosses’ lineup and roster construction both significantly easier.

At various points in 2021 the Yankees played Aaron Hicks, Jonathan Davis, Greg Allen, Estevan Florial, Ryan Lamarre, Tim Locastro, Mike Tauchman and Tyler Wade in center field. Given that group collectively had Yankees fans asking, “Can we get Jacoby Ellsbury back?” and 37-year-old Brett Gardner had become an average OBP hitter with no power who was no longer a base stealing threat, the Yanks tried Judge in center field 23 times. Yet given there were still many concerns about his ability to stay healthy, it was never seriously considered as the solution.

Then in 2022, still with many of the above players on the roster but all still failing to step up, and with corner outfield options Joey Gallo and Andrew Benintendi scaring absolutely zero opposing pitchers, manager Aaron Boone had a conundrum. Giancarlo Stanton and Matt Carpenter could both hit – but there’s only one DH spot.

So, Aaron Judge moved to center field and played a good chunk of the ’22 season there – 73 games to be exact. This gave Boone the flexibility to use Stanton, Carpenter, and Oswaldo Cabrera in the corner outfield spots in addition to designated hitter. Combined, the three played 99 games in the outfield, and it’s safe to say that the production of Stanton (31 home runs in 110 games), Carpenter (15 long balls in 47 games) and Cabrera (108 OPS+) helped the team far more than had any combination of the above names took those at bats as outfielders.

Aaron Judge won the 2022 AL MVP, but his ability to play center field for a team that won the AL East and reached the ALCS had an enormous residual effect on the results far beyond what can be measured. One doesn’t need complex calculations to know that Stanton and Carpenter getting regular at bats was better for the team than Jonathan Davis and Tyler Wade, et al, getting those plate appearances – and it only happened because Aaron Judge could play center field.

The issue seemed to be resolved heading into 2023 with the Yankees starting the season with a healthy Harrison Bader in center with super prospect Jasson Dominguez on the horizon ready for a mid-season call up. As it turned out, Bader couldn’t hit water if he jumped into the East River and Dominguez tore his UCL before the Bleacher Creatures even got to know him. In addition to some of the previous suspects already mentioned, the Yanks also gave reps to Billy McKinney and Isiah Kiner-Falefa in center field, and to nobody’s surprise, the result was that center field was still a problem for the team. (Judge, for his part, did appear in center field 18 times, but the effects of fighting to a draw with the outfield fence in Dodger Stadium forced him to miss one third of the season.)

Heading into 2024, the Yankees traded for Juan Soto. At a cursory glance, this may seem like the most obvious move Yanks’ GM Brian Cashman ever had to make. Yet I’d argue it was only clear cut because Aaron Judge can play center field.

Juan Soto, thus far in 2024 has been a good defensive right fielder. Yet let’s not forget, right field in Yankee Stadium has about as much grass to cover as a putting green. Had Judge not been able to man center field on a regular basis, Soto would have gotten most of his reps in left field, which unlike right field in the Bronx, is a dream for retired cows and BABIP merchants*. Soto has been a below average defensive outfielder his entire career – had the primary lineup option been Soto in left field every day, it’s more than likely he would have been a defensive liability, and I’d bet Brian Cashman may have passed on him.

We’ll never know, because Juan Soto is doing Juan Soto things for the Yankees, in large part because Aaron Judge can play center field.

(*This is why virtually every Yankees left fielder between prime Brett Gardner a decade ago, and Alex Verdugo this season struggled in left field for the Yankees defensively as much as offensively. Left field in Yankee stadium is not an easy task and is a place only for plus outfielders.)

Currently, the Yankees have the second-best record in baseball, lead a tough AL Eastern Division, and have a 98 percent chance of playing postseason baseball. Like any good team, there are dozens of variables for this – but don’t underestimate the impact of a 6’ 7” career right fielder being able to slide over to a significantly tougher position and nail it. Judge has seamlessly become the best center fielder in MLB and has had a bigger residual impact on the Yankees success than can be measured or seen on a superficial level.

Did I miss something? Let me know. Leave a comment below or yell at me @mybaseballpage1 on Twitter and/or the “My Baseball Page” on Facebook.

PS: Speaking of Judge, have you read “62” by Bryan Hoch? If so, let me know. It’s on my list of things to get to…