Do We Have a (Volpe) Problem?

Here’s the thing with Volpe:

His glove at a premium position and his baserunning make him a valuable player even if he remains a below average hitter. But…

His hitting is already below and it’s getting worse.

From his rookie season in 2023 to this season, Volpe’s barrel rate, exit velocity, launch angle and hard-hit rate are all down. His ground ball rate and opposite filed rates are up, and his fly ball and pull rates are down. As the (not so) smart folks over on Yankees State TV have told us all season, this was by design as Volpe changed his swing in the offseason to cut down on strikeouts.

The good news is that his strikeout percentage is down to 21.5% from 27.8% in 2023. The bad news is that his chase rate is up and he’s making (weak) contact on the balls outside the zone. The result of that approach is that although he’s striking out less, he’s also drawing fewer walks and hitting with less power.

Even if Volpe becomes a good singles hitter (he isn’t), walks and power hitting are better than a lot of singles. This is shown in the quality – or lack thereof – in Volpe’s at bats, as his xwOBA was higher in 2023 (.308) than it is now (.292).

One of the reasons the contact for contact’s sake, just put it in play approach is not a good idea is that success is largely based on good fortune. Weakly batted balls need to find holes in the field but with today’s defenses, they rarely do. Fielders have more range and more arm strength than ever, and they also have more intel on where the ball is likely going to be hit.

To wit.

Volpe’s batting average on balls in play over the first 15 games of 2024 was .432, the seventh highest in baseball (that’s a LOT of ground balls with eyes and flares) and it boosted his wRC+ to 199. Since then, his BABIP is a normal .289 and his wRC+ is 75. If you’re out of the nerd loop, a 75 wRC+ is god awful.

Another residual side effect of the just make contact approach is a slower bat, and Volpe is showing us that with a bat speed that ranks in the 12^th percentile in MLB. Why is that a problem?

Because in 2023, Volpe hit four seam fastballs very well – to the tune of a .591 SLG to be exact. This season, not so much, as his shortened (but slower) swing has resulted in a .481 SLG against four seamers.

All told, since the BABIP four leaf clover fell out of Volpe’s pocket on April 15^th, he’s been one of the worst hitters in baseball, by any measure. Out of the 145 hitters with enough PA to qualify, Volpe’s 75 wRC+ over that stretch ranks 137^th and his .272 OBP ranks 138^th. (It’s hard to be a valuable runner if you’re rarely on base,)

As I said, Volpe’s defense and baserunning make him a valuable enough player that needs to be on the field 145 or so games per season. Last night’s game is a good example of that as he’s the only Yankee who would have scored on Trent Grisham’s double, which may have been the difference in the game.

That said, he’s 23 years old and has played more games than all but three MLB players since the start of 2023 – a day or two off wouldn’t kill him. And it’s also becoming obvious that a change in approach is necessary at the plate – a more selective approach with a more violent swing seems to work well for most of the good MLB hitters, but what do I know.

Did I miss something? Let me know. Leave a comment below or yell at me @mybaseballpage1 on Twitter and/or the “My Baseball Page” on Facebook.

(Speaking of statistics, here’s a reminder: “The Numbers Game: Baseball’s Lifelong Fascination with Statistics”, is the best book I’ve ever read on the subject. Direct enough for newbies but enough information for experts – it’s an eye opener.)