What Needs to Happen for the Yankees…

It’s July 25^th, the Yankees are just short of two thirds through the 2024 season, and they are on pace for 93 wins. As many folks, me included, had them pegged for a 91-92 win team before the season started, the Yanks are in a good spot overall, despite the 11-22 stretch they’re in.

Here’s the thing we need to keep reminding ourselves: The Yankees are not as bad as they’ve looked over the past six weeks, but they weren’t as good as they looked over the season’s first nine weeks either. They are essentially a low 90s-win team – this is good, as it’s very likely to get them a spot in the crapshoot known as the postseason.

So, what needs to happen for the Yankees to become a scary matchup for other AL teams in the playoffs?

Austin Wells and Ben Rice need to save us. They are the only two hitters on the active roster with a wRC+ north of 100, and they both draw a lot of walks (only Judge and Soto draw more walks per PA than Rice and Wells.) Of course, they’re both 25-year-old rookies, so expecting them to save the season is a big ask but the Yanks don’t have another option. Wells and Rice must play pretty much every day and they need to produce, because it’s unlikely anyone else is going to.

Except…

Gleyber needs to be Gleyber again, which is possible – perhaps even likely. As sub-par as his hitting has seemed, Gleyber has been a better than league average hitter for three months (111 wRC+ since April 27^th) and his current OPS is the highest it’s been all season. Torres continuing to revert to form is far more likely from a proven 27-year-old than a regression. 

Giancarlo must return. With Stanton, the Yankees were second in MLB in runs scored. Since he’s been out, they rank 14^th.

They need a very good starting pitcher.

The Yankees don’t have a starting pitcher with a sub four xFIP. Of course, we can expect Cole to improve and when/if Clarke Schmidt returns that will certainly help, but the rest of the rotation is much closer to bad than good.

And for the folks out there who think the starters can revert to their form of the first two and a half months of the season, I’m telling you AGAIN they weren’t any good then either, regardless of how many times you heard “ERA”. On June 15^th Gil’s xFIP was just a tick under four which was good for almost exactly league average among qualified starters.

To be clear, they don’t need “A” starting pitcher, they need a very good one. Zach Eflin, Jameson Taillon, nor any of the other half measures Hal and Cashman love will move the needle. There are four pitchers in the top ten in xFIP who currently pitch on sub .500 teams – get one.

Did I miss anything? Let me know in the comments, or yell at me on social media: @mybaseballpage1 on Twitter and/or the “My Baseball Page” on Facebook.

PS: Have you checked out “The New York Game: Baseball and the Rise of a New City”? At first glance, I wasn’t interested but after reading a little bit of it, it’s very good. I still have to get to “The Bronx is Burning” too…