There’s a lot of baseball to watch today (and soccer first) so I’ll make this quick:
Austin Wells is one of the best catchers in baseball and it’s about time we started talking about it.
Among MLB players who have been catchers in at least 75% of their games played in 2024, only William Contreras and Cal Raleigh have more fWAR than Austin Wells. Among that same group of players, only William Contreras and Cal Raleigh have more bWAR than Austin Wells.
Of course, an important distinction must be made in that Wells spent the first half of the season splitting time with Jose Trevino, so he’s played in 34 fewer games than both Contreras and Raleigh. When prorated on a per game basis, Wells has been the most valuable catcher in MLB by both versions of WAR.
If you were wondering where Wells stands compared to former first overall pick and MLB Golden Child Adley Rutschman, Rutschman only plays two thirds of his games as a catcher, so we must be generous in our definition of what is a catcher. That said, despite having 207 fewer PA than Rutschman, Wells leads Rutschman in fWAR, 2.7 to 2.6.
Even with the part time status for a good chunk of the season, Wells is on pace for a 3.8 fWAR rookie season, which is remarkable. He’s no longer a prospect – he’s already a very good MLB player and should be in the Rookie of the Year conversation.
Luis Gil was developed in a government lab to be the luckiest pitcher in Yankees history.
OK, that’s a bit of hyperbole, but not as much as you might think. We’ve been hearing about wins (Gil is tied for second in MLB with 12) and ERA (for the love of God, stop using ERA) all season to argue that Gil has been good – yet his 4.12 xFIP ranks in the 40th percentile among MLB starting pitchers.
Among MLB starting pitchers, Gil walks more batters than any other pitcher by a mile – his 12% walk rate is the highest – no other starting pitcher is in double digits. And when he’s not walking batters, oooo boy…
Gil, on average, yields a whole heck of a lot of hard contact (on the wrong side of the middle in exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit percentage) and what’s worse is that most of it is the wrong kind of contact, as he’s posted the 10th highest launch angle and the 11th highest fly ball rate among MLB starters.
That’s a bad combination – then how’s he been getting by? Glad you asked…
A comically low BABIP (second lowest in MLB) and HR/FB rate (4th lowest in MLB).
Reminder: A four leaf clover in the pocket and good team defense can make pitchers look much better than they are.
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