The weekend was a wild ride, but it’s all good for the Yankees, after taking two of three from Texas (a team who has guys who can mash, regardless of what their record says), which puts the Yanks in a tie with Baltimore for both first in the AL East and the best record in baseball.
Getting a very good start from Gerrit Cole and a good start from Marcus Stroman was encouraging as well. As I’ve been saying all season, starting pitching is this team’s only real weakness and it’s going to need to be better if they’re going to make a serious run in October.
That said, I like to keep it real, so let’s do that. In no order…
I’m not nearly as worried about the bullpen as most Yankee fans are, but if you are one of the worry warts, Clay Holmes is not one of your concerns. Among 155 relievers with at least 40 innings pitched in ’24, Holmes is in the 91st percentile in xFIP. Considering strikeouts aren’t really his MO (his K rate is about average among relievers with 40 or more IP), that’s even more impressive.
Holmes leads MLB relievers in ground ball rate, has generated consistently weak contact (on the correct side of better than average in exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate) and issues free passes less often than three quarters of relievers. But batters have a batting average on balls in play of .343 – which given the numbers above is indicative of many ground balls with eyes, not bad pitching.
Don’t worry about Clay Holmes – you should worry about Anthony Volpe though.
We’ve been down this road before, so I’ll keep it brief. Volpe “changed his swing path” to cut back on strikeouts coming into 2024. The good news is that he strikes out less – the bad news is that he’s worse in 2024 at every other aspect of hitting than he was in 2023. He whiffs less, but he also walks less and hits for less power.
And something that isn’t discussed enough is that Volpe did damage against fastballs last season – .558 SLG against the number one, in 2023 it’s a .433 SLG vs the heat. (His expected outcomes are in line with the results as well, if you’re curious.) Part of cutting back on your swing is that you won’t swing as hard, as Volpe’s 13th percentile bat speed will attest to.
If you’re curious as to why his bottom-line results are similar to last season, I’ll refer you to his 2024 BABIP of .307, which is 48 points higher than his 2023 number. That’s despite having a lower exit velocity, lower barrel rate, and lower hard-hit rate in 2024 compared to 2023. (Remember ground balls with eyes.) Volpe would have been better off building off his power and walks game and just dealing with the Ks – he’d be a much better hitter now.
There is no reason for DJ LeMahieu to take PA away from Ben Rice. In almost two calendar years – since August 23rd of 2022 to be exact – DJ has posted an 83 wRC+, which is worst on the Yankees over that stretch and in the 9th percentile across MLB (minimum 800 PA).
Even a slumping Ben Rice gets on base more often than DJ, and hits for more power than DJ. DJ needs to be a late inning defensive replacement – that’s it.
The Yanks have an easy schedule coming up – my prediction is that they’ll go 11-4 over their next fifteen. Let’s do it.
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