THAT’S Why You Don’t Lead Speedy Guys Off!

I’ve been saying this all season long* – when you have a good base-stealer, you put that base-stealer in front of the low SLG batters at the bottom of your lineup, not at the top of the order. (*Actually, I’ve been saying it since I was a Strat-O-Matic addict when I was a kid, but this really came to a head with the advent of social media and Anthony Volpe constantly batting lead-off over the first half of the season.)

Why?

Part one: The difference between a runner being on either first or second base is negligible when a good, high SLG hitter is at the plate – the risk of running into an out is just not worth it when someone who can do serious damage with a baseball bat is up.

However, …

When a low SLG, not particularly scary hitter is at the plate, the difference between a runner being on first and a runner being on second is massive, and if you have a runner who is a good base stealer, taking the chance of him getting to second on his own is well worth it.

Why?

Part two: A hitter with a low SLG, by definition, is going to have a good chunk (most?) of their hits comprised of flares or ground balls with eyes – the type of hits a good baserunner can score on from second base, especially with two outs – but would not score on from first base on the same hit.

To wit;

In the top of the fifth inning of last night’s game, Jazz Chisolm Jr. singled with two outs and nobody on. With Anthony Volpe (10^th percentile xSLG) and DJ LeMahieu (.265 actual SLG) due up, the odds of an extra base hit are very low, and two consecutive hits from two below average hitters would be needed to score a run.

However, if Jazz gets to second base on a steal, the Volpe specialties – flares and ground balls with eyes – can score a run.

And that’s exactly what happened. Jazz stole second, Volpe hit a grounder 72 miles per hour toward a hole in the infield, and Jazz was able to score because he was on second base, there were two outs, and he was off on contact.

Had the Yanks not taken advantage of Jazz’ skills there, zero runs would have been scored. Volpe’s infield single would have created a first and second situation that would have necessitated the number nine hitter getting a hit to score a run. (Spoiler: DJ hit a weaker grounder than Volpe for the third out.)

We all know that on a macro level, team stolen base totals mean next to nothing. Teams that steal a lot of bases do not score more runs than teams that do not steal a lot of bases.

But on a micro level, if you have an individual player like Jazz (and Volpe) who has the skillset to take second base with a pretty good success rate, you are leaving run scoring opportunities on the table if you bat them in front of good hitters. Batting them in front of the low SLG hitters near the bottom of the lineup creates opportunities from where they may not previoulsy exist.

Of course, it won’t always make a difference in the game result (it didn’t last night), but sometimes it will. Should Jazz or Volpe ever bat leadoff for this team (in front of Soto and Judge) I’m going to need you to rant accordingly.

Did I miss something? Let me know in the comments, or yell at me @mybaseballpage1 on Twitter and/or the “My Baseball Page” on Facebook.

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