Would You Rather Juan Soto, or…?

If we go by contract estimates from the smart people at FanGraphs, the total contract value for Juan Soto should exceed the total contract value of…

Alex Bregman, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, Anthony Santander, and Christian Walker combined.

This begs some questions.

Short term, All-Stars at first and third base, a better than average corner outfielder, and two far above average starting pitchers would make the Yankees clearly better on paper in 2025 without Soto, than they were in 2024 with Soto. (The group of five players above have projections of 15.8 fWAR in 2025, while Soto’s is 6.8.)

Yet if you’re a baseball fan, you know what muddies the water more than a little: Juan Soto is only 26 damn years old. Austin Wells just finished third in the Rookie of the Year voting and he’s only eight months younger than Soto. Alex Rodriguez is the only player to ever be a free agent that was this good, at this young of an age prior to Soto.

The players in the group above aren’t ready to cash in their social security yet, as they all have multiple good years left in their respective careers – but Soto arguably has a decade of great years ahead of him – assuming he’ll add 50 fWAR to his career total over the course of his next contract is a conservative estimate.

Which leads us to the obvious question:

Would you rather have what will likely be a better roster over the next three years, or have more production and value spread out over a decade, which basically keeps you in the winning picture for a long time? (Keep in mind that although Soto’s contract may seem monstrous now, in a few years it won’t be.)

Signing Soto would give the Yankees two generational players in their lineup every day for the foreseeable future, which essentially will keep them a move or two away from being a World Series threat. But…

This lineup:

1. Bregman 3B
2. Jazz OF
3. Judge OF
4. Santander OF
5. Stanton DH
6. Wells C
7. Walker 1B
8. Peraza 2B
9. Volpe SS

…with Gerrit Cole, Fried and Flaherty in the starting rotation would likely be in the top two favorites to win the World Series for the next two or three years.

My answer?

It doesn’t matter as long as the team goes all in. Either direction above is fine. No half measures, no “but they have one of the highest payrolls in MLB” without the context of the team’s value compared to other teams – load up with a 26-year-old who’s on his way to Cooperstown, or load up with a phenomenal roster for the next few years.

(Although if you forced me to make a choice, I’d lean Soto. Despite putting all the eggs in one basket, he’s more of a sure thing than everyone else above.)

Did I miss something? Let me know in the comments, or yell at me on the “My Baseball Page” on Facebook and Blue Sky.

Recommended reading: “The Yankee Way”. Not sure I’d say “recommend” but it’s selling a lot of damn copies so clearly other Yankee fans liked it more than I did. If you check it out, let me know.

Want to support MBP? If you’re an Amazon shopper, use any of the product links on this page to take you there. If you make a purchase – any purchase, not necessarily the product you clicked on – Amazon might make a tiny donation to MBP. Or…