I’ve written previously about how the one-time perception of the Yankees as Major League Baseball’s “Evil Empire” is long gone, and rightfully so. While the Dodgers and Mets make it clear they intend to use their considerable resources to build a team that will bury you and feel no shame for doing so, the Yankees prefer to play the part of the nice uncle who let you beat him at basketball when you were six years old, even though he was two feet taller than you.
The most recent example of this is the Yankees signing of free agent first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. There was a time that Goldschmidt was a bad dude – that time is not 2025.
In every imaginable way a baseball player can be measured, Goldschmidt declined from 2022 to 2023, then declined even more precipitously from 2023 to 2024. Goldschmidt, as good as he once was, was never Ted Williams or Henry Aaron, so expecting anything other than minimal production from him at age 37 is the MLB equivalent of buying a lottery ticket, and as an adult, you are aware, hope is a bad strategy.
The rose-colored glasses, Yankees water carrying crowd will have you believe Goldschmidt is an opposite field hitter who will benefit from playing in Yankee Stadium. The reality is that in 2024, his pull rate increased, and his opposite field rate decreased – and not insignificantly.
The same people will tell you that despite the precipitous drop in production, he hit the ball as hard in 2024 as he ever did. The reality is, he also chased more pitches out of the strike zone than he ever had, swung and missed more than he ever had, and drew fewer walks than he ever had. The hard contact of which is spoken has come less and less often on a line graph pointing down.
Goldschmidt’s proclivity for leaving the zone has also led to a significant drop in his walk rate. If you’re hoping this is going to change for the better, I have bad news for you.
Goldschmidt saw far more off-speed pitches in 2024 than he used to, because he used to smash them – he no longer does.
Why should this concern you?
I remember Pete Rose, toward the end of his career saying that pitchers assumed because he was old, would try to throw the fastball by him. Rose responded by gearing up for the fastball, which meant he had a shot at the number one, but selling out for the fastball meant he couldn’t adjust to the slow stuff.
Enter Paul Goldschmidt, who now chases the slow stuff because he’s selling out for number one and can no longer adjust. (Even worse news, he doesn’t smash the four-seamer the way he used to either.)
But hey, it’s a one-year deal for $12 million, so there’s no risk, right?
Repeat after me: The New York Yankees should not be in the risk aversion business. The New York Yankees should be in the domination business.
Would making a serious effort to sign Christian Walker or Pete Alonso require some risk? Absolutely, but the potential reward is significantly higher than that of Goldschmidt’s.
Would trading for Lamonte Wade involve some risk? A little, but again, the upside of Wade is higher than Goldschmidt’s.
Even if the most valuable team in Major League Baseball wanted to embarrass itself by playing it safe, here’s some news for you:
Ben Rice had a higher barrel rate, higher xwOBA, higher BB%, and the same xSLG as Goldschmidt did in 2024. And Ben Rice is the MLB equivalent of free.
Thus far in the offseason the Yankees have maintained their decade and a half long pattern of preferring the half measure to either acquiring the clearly best player or giving a shot to a young player.
Who’s to blame for this is open for debate, although I’m still of the mind that this is a “head of the snake” problem. Regardless, the Yankees were three wins from a World Series win last season and have had every opportunity to improve this offseason.
They have not, because this is no longer your Evil Empire Yankees, this is your kindly uncle Yankees.
Did I miss something? Let me know in the comments, or yell at me on the “My Baseball Page” on Facebook and Blue Sky.
Recommended reading: “Rickey: The Life and Legend of an American Original” by Howard Bryant.
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