Yankees 2025 Optimism Check: Low

Pitchers and catchers have reported to Spring Training, and I’m here to tell you I’m low man on the Yankees fans optimism depth chart. The addition of Max Fried to the rotation, and having Jazz Chisolm Jr. and Gerrit Cole for the entire season (hopefully) instead of just the second half like last season are positives for sure, but I see regressions and lateral moves everywhere else. Frankly, too many to fully cover today, so let’s start with these three:

LeWaldo

The Yankees appear set on having some combination of DJ LeMahieu and Oswaldo Cabrera handling the reps at third base in 2025. Before we begin, let’s take a moment to remind ourselves that Matt Chapman and Alex Bregman were both available over the past 11 months, and the Yanks passed on Manny Machado a few years back because Miguel Andujar.

(…deep breath…)

On August 22^nd, 2022, DJ LeMahieu had a 130 wRC+ and was on his way to one of the best seasons of his career (136 is his full season career high), and some down ballot MVP votes. Then he hurt his foot, and since then LeMachine has turned into LeGroundout for two plus years. Since 8/23/22, DJ has posted a 79 wRC+ over 851 PA, which ranks 189^th out of 196 MLB hitters with that many PA over that stretch. DJ will turn 37 years old during this year’s All-Star break – he’s not going to be getting better as a player.

For his part, Oswaldo Cabrera – who is a switch hitter – has always been at his best batting left-handed when facing right-handed pitchers. In 639 career PA from his strong side, Waldo has posted a (…squints…) 87 wRC+.

Let’s take a moment to re-read that: In 639 PA – from his strong side – he’s an 87 wRC+ hitter.

Are the Yankees better defensively with LeWaldo at third base and Jazz Chisolm Jr. at second base, than Jazz at third and Gleyber Torres at second? Yes. But nowhere near enough to justify switching out Gleyber’s bat for LeWaldo’s, which is essentially what the team did over the winter.

Cody Bellinger

Two things can be true: I like Bellinger, as most fans do. Yet he is not nearly as good as most fans believe he is.

Since 2021, Bellinger has averaged 2.1 bWAR per 162 games. Keep in mind, that number is heavily bolstered by a 2023 season in which Cody carried a horseshoe around in his pocket, posting unrepeatable BABIP and wOBA given his quality of contact and PA. For comparative purposes, Trent Grisham, who rode the bench last season in favor of Alex Verdugo, has averaged 2.6 bWAR per 162 games since 2021.

“How much of an upgrade is Bellinger, if he’s an upgrade at all?” is not an unfair question.

The Martian

Speaking of replacing Verdugo…

Yes, I’m aware of sample sizes and potential, but facts are facts. The only concerns about Jasson Dominguez’ playing ability as he rose quickly through the ranks were his (in)ability to hit left-handed pitching, and his defense. Again, it’s only a small sample but in the show, he’s been a mess both against left-handed pitchers and in the outfield. To exacerbate this concern even more, he’s slotted to be the more or less every day left fielder, and as anyone who’s watched the Yankees over the past 15 years can tell you (and advanced metrics confirm), Brett Gardner spoiled us, because left field in YS III is insanely difficult to play – otherwise good outfielders have looked like train wrecks out there. Dominguez came up as a center fielder – matters are only going to get harder for him from here on out.

Did I miss something? Let me know in the comments and/or yell at me on BlueSky.

Recommended reading: “The New York Game. Baseball and the Rise of a New City.”

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