We’ve checked in on the Bombers a few times this year, so let’s take a closer look at the Yankees pitching staff – with the enormous caveat that it’s still very, very early in the season.
As a staff, the pitching has been pretty good. They sit ninth in MLB in xFIP and have done very well at limiting hard contact with better than league average ranks in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit percentage. The only glitch thus far has been the proclivity for issuing too many free passes, as their 10.6% walk rate is the third highest in MLB.
On an individual level, there are a few things that may surprise you:
Max Fried has been great – but Carlos Rodon has been as good, maybe better.
Rodon, unlike last season, has been on the wrong side of a HR/FB rate that’s negatively affected his traditional numbers. Yet his xFIP and K-BB% are both better than Fried’s and rank at the 81st and 77th percentile across MLB respectively.
Will Warren has been bad…but not that bad.
Frankly, a 3.75 xFIP is pretty good. However, like Rodon, a very high HR/FB rate has made Warren’s numbers look worse than his performance has really been. To be clear – he hasn’t been good – he’s been far too aggressive in the zone which has led to very few chases and very many line drives. But I see a simple fix: He’s clearly got good stuff, when he starts targeting the black the chase rate will go up and the average exit velocity will come down – I’m still optimistic this will happen.
Fernando Cruz has been phenomenal.
Cruz has faced 63 batters this season and has yet to allow a batter to barrel a baseball. His barrel rate, hard hit percentage and average exit velocity allowed are all above the 90th percentile in MLB, and he’s not doing it by avoiding contact as his walk rate is a tick better than league average. (And when you’ve struck out 43% of the batters you’ve faced, as Cruz has, a low walk rate is very, very impressive.)
The Yanks take on the Rays again today with Clarke Schmidt on the bump. The batters will take their hacks against Zack Littell, who has a propensity to yield hard hit balls. First pitch, 1:05 – let’s go boys…
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Recommended reading: “Luckiest Man: The Life and Death of Lou Gehrig”.
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