As I mentioned on Bluesky the other day, there is far more reason for optimism than pessimism at this point with the Yankees. They’re on pace for 91 wins, they have a legit shot at the division, and they are absolutely going to the postseason – which means they’ve played slightly above expectations this season. They have the best offense in baseball, and in a five-game series, two plus starting pitchers will start four of the five games.
There is another reason for optimism: The bullpen is back and it’s legit.
To wit;
Mark Leiter Jr. ranks in the 97th percentile in hard hit % allowed, 94th percentile in exit velocity allowed, and is well above average in K rate, BB rate, and ground ball rate. He’s been a very good pitcher this season, and only due to his comically high BABIP allowed (.372, 3rd highest among 168 relievers with at least 40 IP) that his traditional numbers aren’t good.
Tim Hill, who essentially will only be used in the postseason to face a few lefties in key spots, has this to say about facing left handed batters: 120 lefties have faced hill, and they have a combined .216 OBP and zero long balls. Even when including right handed batters, Hill has a sub 4 xFIP, ranks in the 96th percentile chase rate, 82nd percentile in walk rate, and two out of three batted balls are worm burners. He is a perfect postseason pitcher – don’t walk anybody and keep it in the park.
Speaking of the 168 relivers who’ve thrown at least 40 innings in 2025, Fernando Cruz has the third best xFIP – a comically low 2.44.
Devin Williams, who many regard as a disappointment, is still a pitcher with whom opponents want no part. Although we’d all like to see fewer walks, Williams is still elite at missing bats (98th percentile whiff rate, 97th percentile K rate) and sports a phenomenal 3.13 xFIP – the 24th best among the 168 relievers mentioned above.
Then there’s David Bednar. Our friend David is also elite as missing bats (97th percentile K rate) and ranks 7th in xFIP among the aforementioned 168 relievers. He also has pretty good numbers across the board considering he’s also been the victim of a high BABIP. His .325 BABIP against is the 18th highest among relievers despite his about average batted ball profile.
And Yankees fans don’t want to hear this, but it’s true: Over the past eight seasons, the Yankees have had bullpens primarily composed of other teams’ castoffs and pitchers whose arms were attached by duct tape. And they’ve been better than league average every year because Aaron Boone and Matt Blake know what they’re doing.
Of course, there are holes and questions with this team. “Why do Volpe, Goldschmidt and Dominguez still get regular PA?” for example. But all teams have warts. In the Yankees case there are far more positives than negatives to be talking about on September 8th.
Did I miss something? Let me know in the comments, or yell at me on Bluesky.
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