“Detroit runs the bases very well – it’s what they do.” – Michael Kay
Fact: Detroit baserunners have been tagged out on the bases more than any team in MLB.
I’ll never miss an opportunity to dunk on Michael Kay, but to be fair, I’ve watched Detroit play three or four times this season and every broadcast has said the same thing. This is due to a) Detroit manager AJ Hinch telling the world that his team was going to be aggressive on the bases even if it meant getting thrown out here and there, b) Detroit leading the league in taking an extra base when the opportunity is there, and c) Detroit, somewhat surprisingly, being a good team. (At one point over the summer they held the best record in MLB and currently hold the 4th best record.)
Conversely, the Yankees take an extra base less often than every team in baseball.
But here’s the thing…
The Yankees score a heck of a lot more runs than Detroit. In fact, the Yankees lead MLB with 5.22 runs per game, which is more than one third of a run more than Detroit’s 4.88 average. One run every three games is not insignificant, if you were curious.
There are three reasons for this:
First, although the Yankees are conservative on the bases, they rarely run into outs. In fact, the Yankees have the third fewest outs made on the bases in MLB, and the two teams ahead of them (Atlanta and LA Angels) have had significantly fewer baserunners, and therefore fewer opportunities to be tagged out. This also applies to stolen bases, where the Yankees have stolen many more bases than Detroit, but get thrown out at a lower rate.
Secondly, and quite obviously, the Yankees are much better hitters than Detroit’s hitters. The Bombers lead MLB with a 116 OPS+, while the Tigers have been a tick above league average with a 103 OPS+. OBP and SLG have always been the drivers of run scoring, not baserunning, because…
Lastly, as much as crotchety old dudes like me appreciate the little things, they are in fact, little. Baserunning has far less to do with teams’ W/L than folks realize. As I wrote in Pinstripe Alley a few years back, you can win a World Series with not particularly good baserunning – you just can’t be awful at it.
To wit;
When all factors are weighed, Detroit ranks 9th in MLB in Base Running Runs Above Average. For comparison, the Brewers, Cubs and Phillies rank 1st, 3rd, and 4th, respectively in BsR. However, the Padres, Yankees, and Dodgers, rank 14th, 15th, and 16th in BsR, while Toronto and Houston rank 25th and 26th.
Good teams are all over the map when it comes to their baserunning abilities.
Which isn’t to say it’s irrelevant, because it isn’t. A team that can balance aggression with effectiveness will certainly give itself a few more opportunities. Just not nearly as many as getting on base and smashing baseballs will.
Did I miss something? Let me know in the comments or yell at me on Bluesky!
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